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ObjectiveTo analyze the effects of respiratory control measures before and after COVID-19 epidemic on influenza virus. MethodsThe percentage of influenza-like cases， the positive rate of influenza virus and the change of influenza outbreaks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic were compared and analyzed by selecting the data of influenza surveillance sentinel-points in Shanghai. ResultsThe percentage of influenza-like illness after the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 was significantly higher than that during the same period between 2017 and 2019. The positive rate of influenza virus detection in 2020 was significantly lower than the average rate of influenza virus detection from 2017 to 2019 with significant statistical difference （χ 2=2 359.07， P<0.001）. The number of outbreaks in 2020 was significantly lower than that from 2017 to 2019. ConclusionDuring the respiratory season， personal protection and reduction of human aggregation can effectively reduce the infection of influenza and the incidence of influenza in the population.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the effects of respiratory control measures before and after COVID-19 epidemic on influenza virus. MethodsThe percentage of influenza-like cases， the positive rate of influenza virus and the change of influenza outbreaks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic were compared and analyzed by selecting the data of influenza surveillance sentinel-points in Shanghai. ResultsThe percentage of influenza-like illness after the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 was significantly higher than that during the same period between 2017 and 2019. The positive rate of influenza virus detection in 2020 was significantly lower than the average rate of influenza virus detection from 2017 to 2019 with significant statistical difference （χ 2=2 359.07， P<0.001）. The number of outbreaks in 2020 was significantly lower than that from 2017 to 2019. ConclusionDuring the respiratory season， personal protection and reduction of human aggregation can effectively reduce the infection of influenza and the incidence of influenza in the population.
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Objective To determine the association between global epidemic of COVID-19 and local situation of imported cases from abroad to Shanghai, and then to predict the risk of imported COVID-19 epidemic from December 2020 through March 2021. Methods A retrospective analysis on the imported COVID-19 cases from abroad to Shanghai was conducted. The correlation between global and country-specific confirmed COVID-19 cases(weekly confirmed cases per 100 000 population)and imported cases(weekly reported)in Shanghai was determined. Compared to the risk in November 2020, country-specific risk of imported cases to Shanghai was assessed to calculate the possible number of imported case in the near future using SEIR model. Results The number of imported case of COVID-19 from abroad to Shanghai increased along with the global epidemic, with several peaks accordingly. However, the imported cases did not accumulate, as potential epidemic has been always effectively contained through timely implementation of prevention and control measures. The number of weekly imported cases in Shanghai was significantly correlated with the number of global weekly confirmed cases per 100 000 population(rSpearman = 0.349, P = 0.029), and also correlated with weekly reported cases in certain countries(P < 0.05), such as the UK and France. Using the number of imported cases from abroad to Shanghai in November as baseline, the estimated monthly number of imported cases in Shanghai might increase in the following four months. Conclusion The risk of imported COVID-19 cases from abroad to Shanghai may increase in the near future. Prediction of imported case would provide scientific evidence for optimizing prevention and control measures and reserving medical resources for the imported epidemic.
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Objective To understand the real prevalence of Clonorchis sinensis infections in the freshwater fish in mainland China, so as to provide insights into clonorchiasis control and detection of freshwater fish. Methods All literatures reporting the prevalence of C. sinensis infections in the freshwater fish, the second intermediate host of the parasite, were jointly retrieved in Chinese and English electronic databases from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020, including Wanfang Data, CNKI, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane Library. All studies were screened based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the quality of all enrolled literatures was evaluated. The pooled prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using the software Stata version 15.0, and subgroup analyses were performed to investigate the region-, season- and sample source-specific pooled prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish. In addition, the sensitivity and publication bias of all included studies were analyzed. Results A total of 40 eligible literatures were included in this study, including 37 Chinese literatures and 3 English literatures, and there were 10 high-quality literatures, 27 moderate-quality literatures and 3 low-quality literatures. A total of 53 species containing 37 959 freshwater fish were reported in these 40 studies, and 73.58% (39/53) of freshwater fish species were identified with C. sinensis infections. Meta-analysis showed 23.5% [95% CI: (0.19, 0.28)] pooled prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish in mainland China, and subgroup analyses higher prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish in northeastern China [35.7%, 95% CI: (0.22, 0.50)] than in central [25.9%, 95% CI: (0.04, 0.48)] and southern China [20.6%, 95% CI: (0.09, 0.32)], higher prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish sampled in spring [44.1%, 95% CI: (0.35, 0.53)] than in autumn [6.7%, 95% CI: (0.05, 0.08)] and summer [3.3%, 95% CI: (−0.01, 0.07)], and higher prevalence of C. sinensis infections in freshwater fish sampled from natural water [25.2%, 95% CI: (0.17, 0.33)] than from retail trades [22.2%, 95% CI: (0.17, 0.28)] and breeding chain [12.3%, 95% CI: (0.03, 0.22)]. However, all included studies had a publication bias with a low sensitivity. Conclusions The prevalence of C. sinensis infections is high in freshwater fish in mainland China, and there are still challenges for clonorchiasis control. Reinforcement of health education, diagnostics development and food safety supervision is recommended in future clonorchiasis control programs.
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To investigate the distribution of ticks and to detect the new bunyavirus in ticks and infection rate in animals in Shanghai,outdoor free ticks were captured by flag method and ticks on animals were collected by animal capture.SFTSV in ticks were detected by real-time RT-PCR.Total antibodies against SFTSV in host animal sera were tested by double antigen sandwich method.Results showed that during 2012-2014,free ticks were captured in Chenshan Park and Jinshan Island,which were all Haemaphysalis longicornis.Ten of seventeen districts found ticks on animals which were dominantly Rhipicephalus sanguineus.No nucleic acid of SFTSV was detected in 143 ticks.Main host animal for ticks was dog,sheep was in the second.Sera in 198 dogs from 6 urban districts,120 swine from Pudong and Fenxian districts and 36 sheep from Chongming District were all SFTSV antibody negative.Ticks were not found with SFTSV in Shanghai during 2012-2014.No SFTSV infection was found in host animals.Therefore,there is no evidence that Shanghai is the natural foci of SFTSV.Further surveillance and investigations should be carried out in the future.
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The health of human, animal and environment is under serious threat from the increasing emerging infectious diseases (EID).Through strengthening the three-level disease prevention network, expanding infectious disease surveillance system and multi-sectoral joint cooperation mechanism, the quick, effective and strong prevention and control system of emerging and imported infectious diseases has been established in Shanghai.Since 2013, through effective control of EIDs such as severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), influenza A H1N1 and H7N9 avian influenza, as well as imported infectious diseases (IID) such as Ebola virus disease, middle east respirators syndrome(MERS), Zika virus disease and yellow fever, the surveillance and response capacity has been improved significantly, and the prevention and control system has been improved gradually.As an international megalopolis under globalization, Shanghai is faced with the challenges as follows: growing pressure to infectious diseases prevention and control, increasingly serious situation of EIDs and IIDs;prevention and control skills need to be improved and the current personnel cannot meet with the demands.In order to meet the challenges, infectious disease monitoring and early warning technology should be strengthened; the sensitivity of infectious disease surveillance and early-warning capacity should be improved; EID symptom complex monitoring system should be established; personnel training should be strengthened, domestic and international cooperation and exchange should be carried out;so as to safeguard public health security and public health in Shanghai.
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To investigate the spectrum-effect relationship between the fingerprint in plasma of Heishunpian (black-processed pieces of Aconit Lateralis Radix Praeparata) and its pharmacodynamic parameters (blood pressure and heart rate) after ig administration to rats, and to elucidate its effective substances. Ultra performance liquid chromatography with quadrupole and time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-QTOF/MS) was used for fingerprint profiling by analyzing plasma samples obtained after ig administration of the ethanol extract from Heishunpian to rats. Meanwhile, the blood pressure and heart rate of heart-failure rats were continuously monitored and recorded. The relationship between the absorbed fingerprint and pharmacodynamic parameters of Heishunpian was established by correlation analysis with partial least square regression (PLSR) method. A total of 13 alkaloids were detected in rat plasma, among which hypaconine, benzoylmesaconitine, benzoylhypaconitine, and 3, 13-deoxybenzoylaconitine were found to be significantly and positively related to the pharmacodynamic data with VIP > 1. Hypaconine, benzoylmesaconitine, benzoylhypaconitine, and 3, 13-deoxybenzoylaconitine are potential effective substances with anti-heart failure effects of Heishunpian.
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Objective To explore the factors associated with severe hand-food-mouth disease (HFMD) case in Shanghai.Methods A total of 105 severe HFMD cases diagnosed from May to July,2011 in Shanghai were enrolled as case group while another 210 mild HFMD cases were randomly selected as control group in the same period.All subject' s parents or babysitters were asked to fill in the questionnaire in which including demography,ways of babysitting,behavior and the like.All HFMD cases were diagnosed by both clinical symptom and nuclear acid testing.Data was processed by EpiData (V3.0) and analyzed by SPSS (V17.0).Results Factors as age,gender,Diaspora pattern,migrant,size of house,numbers of family member,numbers of children,frequency of seeing doctor,dishware that sharing with babysitter,food chewed by babysitter,dirty hand,EV71 virus type and diagnosis on HFMD in the fist visit to hospital were found associated with severe HFMD by univariate analysis.Results through multivariate logistic regression showed that factors including:being the only male kid,more than 3 children in the family,dirty hands,unable to be diagnosed as HFMD in the first visit to the hospital,visiting doctor during the past 6 months for 2 and 3 times etc.could be kept in the model with statistical threshold of 0.05.Adjusted ORs and confidence intervals of them were 2.431 ( 1.317-4.487),2.661 (1.332-5.315),3.403 ( 1.871-6.191 ),6.607 (3.011-14.500),2.431 ( 1.111-5.321 ),2.628 ( 1.137-6.071 ) respectively.Being Infected by EV71 was also found a very important risk factor compared with CoxA16 or other enteroviruses,and its adjusted OR was 5.614 (2.409-13.082).Conclusion It was necessary to implement molecular diagnosis for identifying the virus type of HFMD,together with improvement on the capacity of clinical diagnosis in order to diagnose the HFMD cases earlier.More attention should be paid to these HFMD cases with EV71 infection as well as prompting frequent visits to hospitals on those families with more children.
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Objective To evaluate the non-and-low response to primary immunization of recombinant yeast-derived hepatitis B vaccines (YDVs) among neonates and to probe its determinants, in Shanghai. Methods Two thousand and forty-seven infants, born during 2008-2009 in three districts of Shanghai and administered with 3 dosages of YDVs according to 0-1-6 month schedule, were selected as subjects. Anti-HBs titers were evaluated by Chemiluminescence Microparticle Immuno Assay and related information was collected from parents through questionnaires. Univariate analysis and logistic regression model were used to probe the determinants among those infants with non-and-low response. Results The max-titer of anti-HBs in 2047 subjects was 14 982.7 mIU/ml, whereas the min-titer was 0.52 mIU/ml. The GMC was 408.04 mIU/ml after primary immunization of YDVs. The proportion of infants with titers of ＜100 mIU/ml (non-and-low response) was 17％, in which the proportion with titers of ＜ 10 mIU/ml (non response)was 1.86％ and the proportion with titers of 10-99 mIU/ml (low response) was 15.14％. Data from both univariate analysis and Ordinal logistic regression suggested that gender, age, premature labor,type of vaccines, double positive for both HBsAg and HBeAg were determinants of non-and-low response for infants, with the OR value of 1.365 for male infants, 3.133 for infants with 13-18 months old, 2.824 fo r prematured infants, 4.540 for infants administered by 5 μg YDVs and 2.298 for infants whose mother was double positive for both HBsAg and HBeAg. Conclusion Male infants,infants with 13-18 months old, prematured infants, infants administered by 5 μg YDVs and infants whose mother were double positive for both HBsAg and HBeAg had comparatively worse response for YDVs, suggesting that the anti-HBs titer surveillance programs set for these infants should be strengthened.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the feasibility of establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai, so as to provide the theoretical basis for prevention and control of dysentery.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai from 1990 to 2007. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and conclusion, and the model goodness-of-fit was determined through Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai in 2008 and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted incidence rate and actual one. The incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)(12) had a good fitness to the incidence rate with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1 = 0.443) during the past time series, moving average coefficient (MA1 = 0.806) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 = 0.543, SMA2 = 0.321) being statistically significant (P < 0.01). AIC and SBC were 2.878 and 16.131 respectively and predicting error was white noise. The mathematic function was (1-0.443B) (1-B) (1-B(12))Z(t) = (1-0.806B) (1-0.543B(12)) (1-0.321B(2) x 12) micro(t). The predicted incidence rate in 2008 was consistent with the actual one, with the relative error of 6.78%. The predicted incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009 would be 9.390 per 100 thousand.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of incidence rate of dysentery and to forecast the future incidence rate in Shanghai. It is a predicted model of high precision for short-time forecast.</p>
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Humans , China , Epidemiology , Dysentery , Epidemiology , Forecasting , Incidence , Models, StatisticalABSTRACT
Objective To identify the risk factors of HBV infection in children under the age of 15 in Shanghai and to further enhance the effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccines among children.Methods Using the data from Shanghai under the national hepatitis B serum epidemiological survey in 2006, 599 children aged 1-15 years old were selected as subjects, the subjects were divided into study group and control group by their status on HBV infection. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the risk factors of HBV infection among children.Results Out of 599 children, 15 of them were infected by HBV with the infection rate as 2.50%.Data from both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the HBsAg status of their mothers during pregnancy, the history of hepatitis B vaccination and place of birth appeared to be risk factors of hepatitis B infection (P＜ 0.05 ), with the OR value of 5.338 for HBsAg-positive mother, 42.118 for no history of hepatitis B vaccination and 12.239 for home-delivery, respectively. Conclusion In order to further decrease the rate of HBV infection among children in Shanghai, intervention should be focusing on both migrant and HBsAg-postive pregnant women. Also, the condition of hepatitis B vaccine immunization for newborns in some township hospitals should be improved.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To estimate the frequency of injections and proportion of unsafe injections and to analyses the critical determinants of poor injection practices in general population in China. Also, to study knowledge, attitudes, practice research in providers and general population.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A random sample consisting residents and health care providers in a rural county was elected and interview about the frequency of received injection, as well as knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding injections were studied.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Overall, 1 004 village residents, and 94 providers were interviewed. Among residents, 145 persons (14.4%), with 457 times (0.46 times per person) had received at least one injection during the previous 3 months. The frequency of injection was 1.84 per year. The proportion of received injections on treatment and immunizations was significantly different among > 12 years age group and < or = 12 years age group. Ninety-four point four percent of disposable syringes/needles were used for injections. Knowledge among the population and providers regarding injection safety was limited.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Injections were moderately frequent in this rural area and the proportions of disposable syringes/needles used for injections was very high. Knowledge of safe injection and reasonable injection as well as consciousness of self-protection in the providers and residents need to be improved.</p>